Sunday, August 27, 2006

IT'S TIME TO GET SERIOUS ABOUT ERNESTO

Only yesterday, we were looking at what was then Tropical Storm Ernesto as more of a nuisance. Then, the forecast called for it to simply glide through the Yucatan Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico. Of course, we would have to watch it carefully...and now we know just why. These things can change course or direction with little notice.

If you look above, you'll see that it's done just that. Ernesto officially became a hurricane within the past few hours, and some are saying that before he's done he could become a Catagory 3 storm. The latest forecast discussion notes:

"UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS.

"THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS [Wednesday PM]. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS [Thursday AM]...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS [Friday AM]. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS."

The forecast now calls for it to steer more in a northwesterly...then a northerly direction after taking a trek through the heart of Cuba, then entering Florida late Thursday. Of course, we have to consider the fact that these things can still shift and move about, but the prepardness level just went up considerably.

1 Comments:

Blogger Bryan said...

I had a problem last night, but it looks like it's your problem this morning.

Don't get brave, Robert. Bail out and use I-4 if it looks bad. Things can be replaced and we have an election to win.

12:46 PM  

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