HERE'S A POLL YOU NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY
Of course, it's more than two years before the next presidential election. With that amount of time still ahead, things can --- and likely will --- change. But this poll is something to watch.
The poll was conducted by Selzer & Company, Inc. of Des Moines for the Des Moines Register, and is based on interviews taken May 29 - June 1 of 399 Iowa registered voters who voted in the last general election and identify themselves as likely Democratic caucus participants. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent.
The question asked was: If the Iowa caucuses were held today, for whom would you vote? The results:
30% - Former U.S. Senator / 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards (NC)
26% - U.S. Senator / Former First Lady Hillary Rodham-Clinton (NY)
12% - U.S. Senator / 2004 Democratic Presidential Nominee John Kerry (MA)
10% - Governor Tom Vilsack (IA)
3% - Former U.S. Senator Tom Daschle (SD)
3% - U.S. Senator Russ Feingold (WI)
3% - Former Governor Mark Warner (VA)
2% - U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
2% - Retired General / Supreme Allied Commander Europe Wesley Clark (AR)
3% - None of the above
6% - Undecided / Not Sure
One should be aware that Edwards has been acting like a presidential candidate, having made five trips to Iowa so far this year, most recently last weekend to support Democratic candidates for Congress and governor. That follows four visits last year.
Meanwhile, although Mrs. Clinton hasn't been to Iowa in nearly three years, she did recently her position on ethanol. She had opposed ethanol mandates, but recently called for a major research effort to boost the fuel's use.
The poll shows that Rodham-Clinton holds a 14 point lead over Edwards in the Second Congressional District, which covers southeastern Iowa. But Edwards holds double-digit leads in the Third and Fourth Congressional Districts, which includes much of central Iowa.
It is the first poll which does not show Mrs. Rodham-Clinton as the leader.
2 Comments:
IMNSHO there are three losers in this poll...
Clinton - The aura of invincibility shattered?
Kerry - Won Iowa in 2004 but could only manage 12% this time?
Vilsack - Native son and current Governor only got 10%. If even Iowans don't want him as President, why should anyone else?
As for the people who only received 2%-3%, those are the people without real name recognition yet. That means in the next 18 months they're going to have to buy name recognition. Which of those candidates have the money and/or network to raise money to buy the advertising that will bring name recognition?
IMNSHO only Bayh and Warner.
Bayh has $10mil on hand and has been spending the last two years establishing a nationwide network of donors and supporters.
Don't let the low poll numbers deceive you... these two guys are for real.
I know that Wesley Clark has been active travelling the country in support of Democratic candidates and getting his WesPAC off the ground to the point where his name recognition should have better than it is now.
Hillary did well enough, still well within the margin of error, but Iowans like to be brought along like the young girl in a relationship, and her not visiting in at least a couple of years doesn't endear her to a number of folks there.
Kerry's history...simple as that...no other words needed.
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