FLORIDA CAN BREATHE A BIT EASIER

Hurricane Wilma is still quite powerful as it approaches the "toe" of the Yucatan. But while any hurricane/tropical storm is potentially dangerous, Floridians can at least breathe a sigh of relief in what the forecasts are calling for.

It's meandering in the Yucatan Straits is expected to continue a bit longer than originally believed, and as you can see by the map above, it is not expected to cross Florida until Monday afternoon/evening. And the forecasts are saying that with Wilma weakening as it heads northeast through the Gulf of Mexico, by the time it does reach our state she will be either a Catagory 2...or possibly even a strong Catagory 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Still reason to be concerned, but much less scary than the Catagory 4 originally thought only days ago.

All of that said, this storm continues to be difficult to forecast, as the discussion from the National Hurricane Centre this morning reflects:

BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...TRACK MODELS MOVE WILMA SLOWLY AND IN ALL DIRECTIONS DURING 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD...MAKING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.NEVERTHERLESS...THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR LITTLE OR ERRATIC MOTION OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL THE WESTERLIES EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEYOND 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT GIVES TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR. IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL (NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University) REFLECTS THE SLOW MOTION AND HAS A WEAKENED WILMA JUST WEST OF HAVANA CUBA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IF THE EYE REMAINS OFFSHORE EAST OF YUCATAN LIKE SUGGESTED BY THE LAST RUN OF THE UK MODEL (Done by the UK Meterologicial Office in London)...WILMA COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED.