MY TAKE ON THE CUBAN SITUATION

It was truly interesting to see the pictures early this morning of the Cuban-American exiles and families on Miami's Calle Ocho celebrating the hospitalization of Cuban dictator Fidel Castro and, for the first time in his 47 years in power, his temporarily ceeding power of his office to brother Raul.

They can celebrate. They are here. Life goes on back in Cuba, as only the face at the helm has changed for a few weeks.

So what will happen when the news does eventually come across --- tomorrow, six months, or ten years from now --- that El Presidente has died?

Many within the exile community are hoping and praying to return home and help establish a free and democratic island.

Will that happen? To be totally honest, I am sad to say that I simply cannot see that happen anytime in the near future.

A couple of things cause me to believe that. First, the succession plan has been in place for decades that if Fidel dies or becomes incapacated to remain in power, Raul would step in to head the government. Consider the event this week a dress rehearsal for when that eventually happens.

Also consider this: Raul is the true believer. We actually liked Fidel during the early days of the revolution, as he was trying to overthrow a cruel, corrupt leader. He had come out on several occasions as being an anti-Communist. It was Raul who was the Marxist before his brother, and it was Raul who eventually brought Fidel over to the other side.

Secondly, the Castro brothers have surrounded themselves at the top with individuals who are extremely loyal to them, and to "continuing the revolution".

And the most important piece of the puzzle is this: A regime change can only occur if a large segment of the Cuban population --- especially a large number from among the military ranks --- stands up in opposition to the status quo. To be cruelly honest, I simply do not see that happening anytime soon.

While I am certain that there is a segment on the island that is willing to fight and die for a free and democratic Cuba, many have heard the propoganda for almost all of their lives...and fear the idea of an unknown future. While they may not like diminishing food rations and the other hardships of life there, my guess is that it is all they know and simply favour familiarity over promises.

I hope and pray that someday soon the people of Cuba will be free to decide their own direction. Unfortunately, I believe there is still a long wait ahead.