THE KATHERINE HARRIS SITUATION: IN MY OWN WORDS (updated)

If there is anyone in Florida politics who is difficult to follow, it's Congresswoman Katherine Harris (R - Longboat Key). She can be tremendously stubborn, especially if she feels slighted. That said, this is what I feel about her current situation as a U.S. Senate candidate against Democratic incumbant Bill Nelson:

1) I fully expect Harris to withdraw by the end of this week (UPDATE: Her "major announcement" is scheduled for tomorrow in Bartow; I will try to be there to bring you a first hand account). My feeling is that she has finally come to the conclusion --- with help from some close to her --- that she is, in effect, damaged goods. The fact that state GOP officials and others have only grudgingly supported her (since noone else could be recruited or otherwise come to the forefront), combined with her ties with convicted defense contractor Mitchell Wade who admitted making illegal contributions to her campaign and a campaign staff that seems to have a turnover rate bigger than a low-rate call centre, should tell her clearly that to remain in the race would be political suicide.

2) If she withdraws from the Senate race, does that mean she'll decide to seek reelection to her congressional seat? That's the biggest question. There are now four Republicans seeking her current post, and considering that Ms. Harris is not clearly popular even within her own district, how many of them would choose to challenge the incumbant if she decided to seek reelection? Makes one want to scratch their head and ponder the possibility, eh?

3) Okay, so what about other possible candidates if/when Harris bails out?

A) Governor Jeb Bush - You folks who really believe Jeb! can/will be encouraged to get into the race...PLEASE put down the Kool-Aid. I truly believe the gov when he says he will not seek the Senate seat, or is even interested in it. After nearly eight years as Florida's chief executive, Bush is ready to take a break from the political game (at least actively), get back into the private sector, and make some REAL money...or maybe he can hope for a cushy appointed job IF the Republicans are able to keep the White House in 2008 (let's hope NOT!)

B) Congressman Mark Foley (R - West Palm Beach) - While he doesn't have a great deal of name recognition outside of South Florida, he has increased his visibility in recent months. With the governor emphatically saying he will not run, I can see the GOP rallying around him as the only true hope to take Nelson's seat in November...although it is a long shot. Not only will Foley have to get visible statewide, he'll have a long way to go even getting close to Nelson's estimated $8 million campaign fund.

C) Thomas Rooney - The Palm Beach County attorney, related to the Rooney family which owns the Pittsburgh Steelers NFL team, has never before sought political office. He has no name recognition, and while the Rooney name may help him in Pennsylvania, it will mean next to nothing in the Sunshine State. Of course, unless he plans to use much of his own wealth in a campaign, he'll have even more of a hurdle than Foley getting anywhere near Nelson's bankroll.

D-E) Florida Senate President Tom Lee (R - Brandon) and Speaker of the Florida House Allan Bense (R - Panama City) - I put these two together because they share the same situation. Both, while holding key positions in the Legislature, are not well known outside of their respective areas and among political activists/junkies. Both are in the beginning throes of the 60-day legislative session, which will make it very difficult to do any campaigning or fundraising (since the U.S. Senate is a federal position, they are not subject to state campaign fundraising laws). And again, both would have a very long way to go toward matching Nelson's campaign fund.

At this point, the chances of a Republican truly challenging Nelson at this point are extremely slim, so you can expect whoever the GOP nominee will eventually be to get down and dirty quickly in a desperation attempt to turn voters against the incumbant. Hopefully, the majority of the electorate would see such conduct for what it is.