Thursday, July 27, 2006

AND HERE'S THE QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SURVEY

Most Florida political watchers have been looking over the latest polls released this week, with the Mason-Dixon survey released Monday and Strategic Vision's poll Tuesday. Also released yesterday was the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute's survey of 1,541 registered voters across Florida. It included 340 likely Republican and 319 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted July 19-24, and has a margin of error of 5.5 percent.

I'll keep is short and sweet here, because the QU poll simply mirrors the results of the other two. The main difference is the gap of Democratic Congressman Jim Davis' lead over State Senator Rod Smith --- 47 to 19 percent with 33 percent undecided or supporting another candidate. That's a lot different than the much closer leads shown in the other two surveys. And the QU survey shows that Davis' lead has been consistant since February, while the Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision surveys have been noticing that gap shrinking steadily.

Among Republicans, Attorney General Charlie Crist's commanding lead is confirmed yet again here, with a 23 percent advantage (55-32 percent with only one percent supporting another candidate). Clearly the Tom Gallagher campaign team needs to sit down and consider the fact that three major polls show Charlie Crist with a huge lead and less than six weeks until the primary. There are some hard questions to answer, and even more difficult decisions to make there.

The QU survey did not even address the U.S. Senate race. It did ask respondants how they felt about Governor Bush's job in office; he has a 56 percent approval rating, and he only faltered among Democrats, blacks, and in Southeast Florida...no great surprise here.

And so it goes...

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