SOME GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

1) IMHO, the GOP gubernatorial and general election U.S. Senate races are basically done deals...even my five year old granddaughter can tell you that! Charlie Crist's huge lead was validated with two polls this week, and it seems nearly impossible that Republican primary challenger Tom Gallagher can do anything to seriously challenge the attorney general. The Democratic primary will be much more fun to watch in the last six weeks or so, especially as Rod Smith's campaign continues to gain momentum. However, one cannot count Jim Davis out, and this race should be close to the end.

As far as the U.S. Senate race, Katherine Harris may have mucho dinero to toss away, but between a 59 percent unfavourable rating according to the latest Strategic Vision Political poll (see post below) and Bill Nelson's generally favourable impression among the voters as well as his moderate voting record, her chance of actually being elected is close to mine chance of becoming a Polk County Commissioner...slim and none. That only way she can pull it off is for Nelson to defeat himself with either a stupid comment or getting caught chasing whores on Dale Mabry Boulevard.

2) The only explanation I have for former NYC mayor Rudy Guiliani showing up at the top among Florida Republicans for the 2008 presidential election is all the New York/New Jersey repatriates who have moved to the Sunshine State in recent years. But can Guiliani make a serious bid among the other potential GOP candidates? I say it's questionable.

3) Polk County politics this election season will basically be a snoozer, as three school board incumbants and two of the five legislative seats have already been decided as only one candidate bothered to qualify; the other three races feature unknown challengers facing incumbants or well-known candidates with lots of money and political experience. That said, the two County Commission races should be interesting to watch.