NEW QUINNIPIAC POLL CONFIRMS NELSON LEAD OVER HARRIS IN HEAD TO HEAD SENATE BATTLE

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released it's latest Florida poll today, and it confirms an earlier Mason-Dixon poll showing incumbant Democrat Bill Nelson with a sizable lead over Congresswoman and probable Republican candidate Katherine Harris...but there is reason for Nelson to be concerned.

According to the survey of 1,248 registered Florida voters (including 423 registered Democrats; 477 registered Republicans) conducted June 22-26, Nelson leads Harris by a margin of 50-38 percent. No surprise that Democrats heavily support Nelson (80-11 percent) and Republicans heavily support Harris (72-15 percent). Among Independents, Nelson gets the sizable nod, 61-27 percent.

But the concern comes by looking at the question, "Bill Nelson is up for reelection in 2006. Would you like to see Bill Nelson re-elected Senator, or would you like to see someone else elected Senator?" The result there is tight, with 38 percent saying they would like to see Nelson re-elected, and 37 percent saying they would like to see someone else. Twenty-five percent have no opinion, or have not decided. That trend has been consistant since December, and will probably give more fuel to those seeking to find another GOP candidate instead of Mrs. Harris.

However, among Republicans, Harris continues to be the sizable favourite among 54 percent of those surveyed, compared to only ten percent for Senate President Tom Lee (R - Brandon) and six percent for Florida House Speaker Allan Bense (R - Panama City). A rather large 26 percent is undecided.

When asked about head-to-head battles, Nelson leads in all areas of the state with the only difference being that in a Nelson-Harris race Ms. Harris would take her home area, Southwest Florida.

UPDATE: Florida Politics, one of the best blogs of it's type in the state, predicts Bense will be in the race, and that Ms. Harris will "hand Mr. Bense his derriere." That scenario would be an embarrassment to the Bush Brothers, whose political operatives have reportedly been speaking to Mr. Bense about running. It also would have the potential of sparking a GOP bloodbath in Florida. Most among us Democrats say we fight each other to get ready to fight the opposition, but this type of situation in the state Republican Party could be nasty, not to mention a huge drain on the sizable campaign account that Harris would hope to wait to use in a general election race.

And speaking of Ms. Harris, Jeremy Wallace's political blogroll from the Sarasota Herald-Tribune notes today that Ed Rollins, one of the late Ronald Reagan's top political advisers and was his national campaign chairman for the 1984 reelection, has bene helping for congresswoman organize her campaign for the past couple of weeks.

Looking at the governor's race, Attorney General Charlie Crist holds a sizable lead over Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher among Republicans, and the trend since February shows that lead has increased. Among all respondents, the two men are virtually tied with Gallagher holding a 33-32 percent lead.

Among Democrats, Congressman Jim Davis (D - Tampa) leads Scott Maddox 24-16 percent. The trend since February shows Maddox's numbers have fallen slightly after a sharp spike up in April, while Smith's have remained stable. The numbers for State Senator Rod Smith (D - Alachua) have fallen by more than half, from 16 percent in April to only seven percent in this survey. The number of undecideds has risen sharply as a result, to 48 percent.